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What Is a Monte Carlo Simulation and How Is It Used in Retirement Planning?
A Monte Carlo simulation is a computational method that models thousands of possible future market scenarios to assess the probability that a retirement plan will succeed under a wide range of outcomes, not just a single assumed average return.
Rather than projecting retirement using a fixed rate of return such as 6% annually, a Monte Carlo simulation generates hundreds or thousands of randomized return sequences based on historical volatility and mean returns, then calculates what percentage of those scenarios result in your money lasting through retirement. The output is typically expressed as a probability of success, such as an 85% chance your plan survives a 30-year retirement across all simulated scenarios. This approach is more realistic than straight-line projections because it accounts for sequence of returns risk, the danger that poor markets early in retirement can permanently impair a portfolio even if long-term averages are normal. Monte Carlo analysis is a standard tool in sophisticated retirement income planning and is part of the retirement planning process at Moore Invested, where we use scenario modeling to stress-test every client’s plan before and throughout retirement.
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