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What Is Sequence of Returns Risk and Why Does It Matter in Retirement?

Sequence of returns risk is the danger that the timing of investment losses, particularly early in retirement, can permanently damage a portfolio's ability to sustain withdrawals even if long-term average returns are acceptable.

Moore Invested

Unlike during the accumulation phase when poor markets are simply periods of buying at lower prices, a retiree who experiences significant losses in the first few years of retirement while also taking withdrawals is forced to sell shares at depressed prices to fund living expenses. Those shares are no longer available to participate in the eventual recovery, which can cause the portfolio to run out of money years before a straight-line projection would suggest. For example, two retirees with identical 30-year average returns but opposite return sequences can have vastly different outcomes: the one who experienced gains early and losses late will likely be fine, while the one who experienced losses early and gains late may deplete their portfolio prematurely. Strategies to manage sequence of returns risk include maintaining a cash or short-term bond reserve to fund early retirement withdrawals without selling equities during downturns, employing a bucket strategy, and maintaining flexibility to reduce discretionary spending during prolonged market declines.

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