Stocks continued their upward trajectory in early 2024. The S&P 500 returned more than 10% for a second consecutive quarter, setting multiple new all-time highs along the way. Notably, this quarter saw a significant shift in sentiment, as investors now only expect three interest rate cuts this year as compared to six at the start of the year. This change in expectations came as inflation progress slowed and the U.S. economy continued to expand despite higher interest rates, both of which signal a need for fewer rate cuts.

The stock market is off to a strong start this year, with the S&P 500 Index gaining +10.4% in the first quarter. Figure 1 graphs the price of the S&P 500 Index since the end of 2021. The yellow dots mark new all-time closing highs. On the far-left side of the chart, the single yellow dot marks the previous all-time closing high set on January 3rd, 2022. Shortly after the January 2022 all-time high, the Federal Reserve started its campaign of aggressive interest rate hikes as inflation spiked to a 40-year high. The chart shows the 2022 stock market selloff as investors feared that higher interest rates would slow the economy.

The January 2022 all-time closing high held throughout all of 2022 and 2023, but it’s already been eclipsed multiple times in 2024. After trading below its prior all-time high for over two years, the S&P 500 Index has set 22 new all-time closing highs this year. The yellow dots on the far- right side of the chart mark these new highs and show the S&P 500’s steady climb higher in early 2024.

Inflation was on a steady downward trend heading into this year, and the market expected it to continue moving lower. However, recent data is causing investors to rethink that assumption. Figure 2 graphs the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in price for a basket of consumer goods. The chart shows the inflation spike in 2021 and early 2022, followed by a period of easing inflation during the past two years. However, the yellow box shows that the pace of inflation progress has slowed recently. While inflation is still drifting lower, it’s not falling as quickly as investors or the Federal Reserve want.

The question is whether the slowing progress is the start of a new trend or a temporary break in the current trend. Seasonality may be contributing to the slowdown, as inflation tends to be higher earlier in the year and then lower later in the year. Is the early 2024 rise the result of previously agreed upon contractual price increases, or does it hint at something more under the surface? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell believes the early 2024 inflation bump is seasonal and short term in nature. The market is less certain and more divided. The chart also demonstrates that getting back to the Fed’s 2% inflation target will be bumpy and uneven. The disinflation process won’t be a straight line. The latest risk is rising oil prices, with the price of a regular gallon of gasoline jumping by over +20% during Q1. Falling energy prices helped to ease inflation pressures during the past two years, but there is now a question about whether that trend can continue with gas prices rising.

One of the big debates heading into 2024 was how many times the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. Figure 3 tracks the market’s rate cut forecast. Looking back to the start of Q4 2023, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by -0.75% this year. By the end of December, the market’s rate cut forecast for the entirety of 2024 had risen to -1.50%. Based on a typical rate cut increment of -0.25%, investors came into this year expecting six interest rate cuts (i.e., -1.50% in total cuts). In contrast, the Federal Reserve only expected three interest rate cuts at the start of this year, or half the market’s estimate. There was a debate over whose interest rate cut forecast was more accurate. As of the end of Q1, the central bank’s forecast appears more accurate. Investors now only expect three interest rate cuts this year, which is in line with the Fed’s initial forecast.