MI Macro Articles
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Old School Thinking Post Convention
Diminishing Relevance Traditionally, the end of the second convention marked the start of the presidential election season. Candidates did not campaign full stop, and therefore the public did not pay close attention until after both parties had introduced their nominees to the country. In recent decades, the convention demarcation line has been blurred by multi-year […]
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Why Stocks Have Rallied Despite Higher Rates
Not the Only Game in Town One of NDR’s themes over the past two years has been that higher interest rates make stocks less attractive versus bonds. To paraphrase quotes from several clients, “Why not allocate some to fixed income when I can get over 4% from bonds and over 5% from cash?” To use […]
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Seven Reasons Why No Recession
When the Fed started QT and raised rates sharply leading to an inverted yield curve starting in early 2022, Chairman Powell warned of pain to come, which nearly all economists believed would lead to recession. We did get a slowdown for a while, but no recession, and today I would like to offer…
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Why Do Investors Expect Fewer Interest Rate Cuts This Year?
One reason is that inflation progress is slowing. Another reason is that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates. Figure 4 graphs three data points that underscore this resilience. The top chart graphs the number of new homes for sale by stage of construction: not started; under construction; and completed. The chart shows home […]