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What Is a Safe Withdrawal Rate in Retirement?
A safe withdrawal rate is the percentage of your retirement portfolio you can withdraw each year without running out of money over a defined period.
The concept was popularized by financial planner William Bengen in 1994, whose original research on U.S. market data suggested that a 4% annual withdrawal, adjusted for inflation, had historically survived every 30-year retirement period in the data set. However, current research has updated this guidance. Morningstar’s 2025 State of Retirement Income report, published in December 2025, sets the base-case safe withdrawal rate for 2026 retirees at 3.9% for a balanced portfolio with 30% to 50% in equities, assuming a 30-year retirement horizon and a 90% probability of success. Retirees willing to adjust spending flexibly in response to market conditions may be able to withdraw as much as 5.7% annually. The right withdrawal rate for any individual depends on their asset allocation, time horizon, Social Security and other guaranteed income, and willingness to adjust spending when markets decline. A withdrawal rate calculator can offer a starting estimate, but a personalized retirement income plan provides far greater precision.
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