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What Is Sequence of Returns Risk and Why Does It Matter?
Sequence of returns risk is the danger that the timing of investment losses, particularly in the early years of retirement when withdrawals are actively being taken, can permanently impair a portfolio even if long-term average returns are acceptable.
Unlike during the accumulation phase, where a market downturn simply means buying more shares at lower prices, a retiree who experiences significant losses early in retirement while simultaneously withdrawing funds is forced to sell depleted assets to cover expenses. Those sold shares are no longer available to participate in the eventual recovery. Two retirees with identical 30-year average annual returns but opposite sequences can have vastly different outcomes: one whose returns are front-loaded may retire comfortably, while one who experiences the same losses but in the early years may deplete their portfolio well ahead of schedule. A widely cited example from 2025 shows a retiree who entered the market at the beginning of 2025 and saw the S&P 500 fall roughly 20% peak to trough by April before recovering illustrates precisely this risk. Managing sequence risk through cash reserves, diversification, flexible spending, and income-floor strategies is one of the most important functions of a retirement income plan.
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